Mr. Twenty-Three Percent

Although Ehud Olmert and Kadima “won” the election, it is not the mandate they sought.  The Jerusalem Post reports:

Before the network broadcast their exit polls, Kadima strategist Lior Horev told The Jerusalem Post that anything over 33 seats would be considered a victory, and anything under 32 would be considered a defeat.

Kadima ended up with only 28 seats.  That leads to two contradictory possibilities in the attempt to form a government with the necessary 61-seat coalition (a majority of the 120-seat Knesset):

The outcome of the exit polls set up a possible center-left bloc of 62 seats, consisting of pro-disengagement parties Kadima 28, Labor 20, Meretz 4, and the Arab parties 10.

But since it is unlikely that the Arab parties will be invited into a governing coalition, the “center-left” block is actually only 52.

Another alternative is a right-wing bloc, made of Likud (11), National Union-NRP (9), Israel Beiteinu (12), Shas (13) and United Torah Judaism (6). It garnered a combined representation of 51 seats . . .

So the left has 52 seats, the right has 51 seats, and each side needs another 9-10 seats to form a government.  In terms of the Jewish vote, this is a country split down the middle.

Moshe Z. Matitya, a commenter at the Jerusalem Post article, thinks that:

If Bibi and Lieberman can make a sweet enough offer to the Pensioners, and get Shas and Agudah on board as well, then they still have enough to form a blocking coalition against Olmert.  They'll have to give the Pensioners everything they want and more, though, because Olmert will try to do the same.  It seems to me that the future of this country is about to be determined by a bidding war to buy the Pensioners.

But the Pensioners have only 7 seats, not enough to give either side a governing majority.  At Israel National News, there is this report:

Haaretz commentator Ari Shavit, who although supportive of the Gaza withdrawal has been increasingly apprehensive about Kadima’s plans for large-scare withdrawals said, "Ehud Olmert did not receive a mandate to carry out a unilateral withdrawal from Judea and Samaria. . . .

Though Kadima performed much worse than all polls projected and is the smallest party to ever enjoy the status of the largest Knesset party, Olmert said it received [a] mandate for its vision. "The people have spoken clearly, they want Kadima," Olmert boomed, adding that the dream of the Greater Land of Israel must be repudiated “and Jews, with much pain, must be evacuated.”

The people have spoken, but not clearly.  Olmert’s party received 23% of the vote (28 of 120 seats).  Just to get to 52 seats, it needs the far left party Meretz.  Whatever it gives up to get the remaining nine seats it needs is not going to be pretty. 

So the election turns out not to be the referendum that many anticipated.  The New York Times reports that:

Mr. Olmert says his aim in the next four years will be to set Israel's borders with the Palestinians, unilaterally if necessary, and called the election a referendum on his intentions.  But with Kadima's smaller total, he may find it necessary to have a national referendum on the issue -- something Mr. Sharon always rejected -- in order to carry it out with less protest, or even violence.

It seems like a better idea than deciding the country’s national security policies by buying off the Pensioners.

Comments

[J. Lichty]

I can't imagine BiBi and the pensioners on the same side of this under any conditions. In fact, his economic reforms are a large factor in the success of that special interest group.

It is time for electoral reform in Israel - this system just does not work. Of course none of the politicians in power have the self-interest or courage to do it.

Olmert will only be able to govern if he brings in the Arabs - who no dount agree with Olmert's surrender speech, but think it should go further.

This will be a very bad four years for Israel if an Olmert government can last that long. Peretz gained too much power not to have the ammunition to wreck the economy and Eurize it with a rollback to the pre-Bibi days. I expect he will get the finance ministry portfolio and look out economic growth.

It is telling that Olmert did not talk about victory or prosperity, but rather the only thing he had to say was Sharon, blah, blah, blah. We surrender painfully and we will continue to surrender.

This is really a disaster of Oslo like proportions and sadly only Hamas and Iran can save Israel from itself by maybe waking up the electorate long enough to bring back the right in two years - by then certain things will be too late.

Is Lieberman a danger to join a Kadima coalition? If so, will he force a referendum?

This is a dark day for Israel but it has faced them before and Am Yisrael Chai.

[FERN SIDMAN]

COMMENTARY ON ISRAELI ELECTION RESULTS

BY: FERN SIDMAN

The election results are in and the immediate future of Israel is in deep peril. Despite the low voter turnout, it appears that the Kadima, Labor and Meretz coalition has taken power with the lowest coalition majority in the history of the state.

At Mr. Olmert’s victory speech, his ominous policies were clearly vocalized. “The people have spoken clearly, they want Kadima,” Olmert boomed, adding that the dream of the Greater Land of Israel must be repudiated “and Jews, with much pain, must be evacuated.”

Olmert’s words were echoed by Shimon Peres of Kadima, who announced Tuesday night that the future coalition will be one that will promote the “turning inward” plan – a new euphemism for unilateral withdrawals that frames the forced evictions as moving outlying towns to the delineated settlement blocs.

And who is really celebrating tonight?? You guessed it. The Arabs. While they spew forth their vituperative towards the State of Israel and plan it’s destruction, our Jewish leaders fall all over themselves attempting to make “peace” with those who seek our destruction. The Arabs are also elated because the Arab parties received 10 seats in the next Knesset.

When did we ever believe that this would occur? Let us remember the words of Rabbi Meir Kahane, ZT”L who said that Arabs would eventually become a majority and quietly, democratically vote Israel out of existence. We have now witnessed the beginning of this phenomenon.

“The ultimate hope of the Arabs who dream of destroying the Jewish State, of realizing that vision, is the left-liberal camp inside Israel” Rabbi Meir Kahane - (Israel: Revolution or Referendum?, 1990, page 62)

It is also apparent that the government of Israel seeks to quell the right of free speech, a basic component of a democratic government. This was evidenced when MK Michael Kleiner of Herut came to Jaffa, in a last-minute effort to solicit Arab votes. Kleiner's supporters posted signs in Arabic in Jaffa, and in other Arab towns throughout Israel, urging Arabs to vote for him, in the upcoming Israeli national elections. Kleiner is promising to push for legislation of a law that would pay Arabs to leave Israel.

According to recent surveys, as many as 50 percent of the "Palestinians" would gladly leave Israel if they were given start-up funds to begin a new life elsewhere.

Local Arab leaders incited a riot, and police refused to allow Kleiner to come back to Jaffa. Kleiner also filed complaints against Tel Aviv Councilman Rifat Torik for incitement and his statements in support of the attacks against party activists, who Kleiner maintains were in life-threatening danger.

It is clear that anyone who proposes the idea of transfer of the Arab population is subject to harassment and arrest and severe prosecution. Anyone who attempts to promulgate the idea of self preservation of the Jewish people and the Jewish State is viewed as a villain, a criminal, a fomenter of unrest. Anyone who speaks the Torah truth, who speaks of the uniqueness of the Jewish people, who declares the Oneness and Omnipotence of the G-d of Israel is subject to ridicule, and worse, arrest and imprisonment.

The powers that be in the Israeli government cannot quash the truth. They cannot silence those whose belief in and adherence to the laws of Hashem and His Torah, are their first priority. We can no longer remain blind to the truth. And the truth is the Arabs are indeed on their way to becoming a majority in the State of Israel. Rather than being voted out of existence by the Arab in this ostensible democracy, we must raise our collective voices in protest of the impending destruction of Israel. We must summon up the strength and courage to do the will of Hashem. We must purge the malignant Arab population before it is too late. May Hashem be at our side.