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« Roger Cohen at Sinai Temple -- II | Main | Defenders of the Faith »

March 19, 2009

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J. Lichty

They need no reason, and Rick is right, we have seen this story before, and here is the latest act:

Evil right wing extremist jews (notice Bibi is not extreme enough, so the new boogy man is Lieberman) have hijacked the peace process that was so close to a beaktrhrough under the Livni-Olmert junta.

But while it is easy to predict the storyline, what is truly the devil is how it will play out.

Yes, the parade of demands for Israeli concessions vis a vis settlement freezes, money transfers and release of terrorists will continue unabated from the Rice/Bush administration's shameful example (which itself is a continunation dating back to Nixon, or at least Carter). However, even in the pressure for concessions from Israel, there were certain elements of the US/Israel releationhip that were sacrosanct.

Specifically, Israel qualitiative edge in military technology, the US veto of security council resolutions that on a not so slippery slope could lead to the crippling south african style sanctions, the affirmance of US committment to secure and defensible borders (as well chronicled on this site), and most importantly, Iran.

The ill winds we are likely to see developing in this administration are:

- the resurgence of the "realist" crowd in confluence with the hardcore peace processors that will erode Israel's special status and ultimately its right to exist. This is already happening in the administration which we all saw nakedly with the Freeman appointment. These type of people will continue to populate the administration in the intelligence arena and in the diplomatic arena. You will see a larger attempt to ingratiate with the multilateral bodies like the UN. This will be done with one aim in purpose, to erode US independence wwith respect to the Israel issue. It will no longer be surprising to see either no support for Israel in the intelligence and diplomatic arenas, or to see a few countries occasionally standing up as Canada did.

In the defense realm, we will see increased sales of advanced weapons systems to Israel's enemies like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and yes, even Syria. The US will continue to arm the Palestinians with more and more advanced weaponry.

On the flip side, you will see more and more weapons sales and joint projects cancelled. Military cooperation will slow down and eventually all but vanish.

The US will no longer reflexively support Israel at the UN, but rather will join the chorus, with occasional mealy mouthed affirmations of Israel's right to exist. The US will join the ICC which will in turn pressure Israel to do the same.

Finally, with respect to Iran, the Obama administration will not only stand by, it will actively work to prevent Israel from acting.

In short, we will not have seen an administration this hostile to Israel since Eisenhower (yes I even include Carter in that - he got worse once he left office)

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